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  • Added for You - President Bush’s New Iraq Strategy: A Survey of the Challenges Involved

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    ise in violence that had been occurring. That effort failed dramatically.

    Reliance on a Largely Sectarian Iraqi Government/Sunni Distrust:

    President Bush’s new strategy will provide U.S. muscle to Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki’s plan for securing Baghdad. By assuming the responsibility for implementing the Maliki plan, e

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    With Iraq caught in the throes of a low-grade civil war on one end and an aspiring Shia bid for domination on the other, President Bush proposed his long-awaited change in strategy for Iraq on Wednesday night. To succeed, it will need to overcome a number of significant challenges. A sketch of the more important challenges is in order.

    Enough Manpower?

    In his speech, President Bush called for sending “more than 20,000 additional American troops to Iraq.” The “vast majority” would be deployed to Baghdad. That figure would still leave total U.S. manpower far short of what would be needed to bring stability to Iraq through military means, especially if the quality and performance of Iraq's security forces and personnel do not improve markedly. Prior to the war, General Eric Shinseki estimated that “several hundred thousand” troops would be required. The 1999 “Desert Crossing” simulation that envisioned many of Iraq’s current problems assumed 400,000 soldiers. Now that Iraq has witnessed the rise of increasingly well-armed and organized militias and an outbreak of low-grade civil war, those estimates may be conservative.

    Furthermore, there is recent precedent for failure of a similar mini-surge. In August 2006, the U.S. and Iraqi transitional government “surged” police and military manpower into Baghdad in a bid to stem the rise in violence that had been occurring. That effort failed dramatically.

    Reliance on a Largely Sectarian Iraqi Government/Sunni Distrust:

    President Bush’s new strategy will provide U.S. muscle to Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki’s plan for securing Baghdad. By assuming the responsibility for implementing the Maliki plan, es

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    p>Enough Manpower?

    In his speech, President Bush called for sending “more than 20,000 additional American troops to Iraq.” The “vast majority” would be deployed to Baghdad. That figure would still leave total U.S. manpower far short of what would be needed to bring stability to Iraq through military means, especially if the quality and performance of Iraq's security forces and personnel do not improve markedly. Prior to the war, General Eric Shinseki estimated that “several hundred thousand” troops would be required. The 1999 “Desert Crossing” simulation that envisioned many of Iraq’s current problems assumed 400,000 soldiers. Now that Iraq has witnessed the rise of increasingly well-armed and organized militias and an outbreak of low-grade civil war, those estimates may be conservative.

    Furthermore, there is recent precedent for failure of a similar mini-surge. In August 2006, the U.S. and Iraqi transitional government “surged” police and military manpower into Baghdad in a bid to stem the rise in violence that had been occurring. That effort failed dramatically.

    Reliance on a Largely Sectarian Iraqi Government/Sunni Distrust:

    President Bush’s new strategy will provide U.S. muscle to Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki’s plan for securing Baghdad. By assuming the responsibility for implementing the Maliki plan, e

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    lity and performance of Iraq's security forces and personnel do not improve markedly. Prior to the war, General Eric Shinseki estimated that “several hundred thousand” troops would be required. The 1999 “Desert Crossing” simulation that envisioned many of Iraq’s current problems assumed 400,000 soldiers. Now that Iraq has witnessed the rise of increasingly well-armed and organized militias and an outbreak of low-grade civil war, those estimates may be conservative.

    Furthermore, there is recent precedent for failure of a similar mini-surge. In August 2006, the U.S. and Iraqi transitional government “surged” police and military manpower into Baghdad in a bid to stem the rise in violence that had been occurring. That effort failed dramatically.

    Reliance on a Largely Sectarian Iraqi Government/Sunni Distrust:

    President Bush’s new strategy will provide U.S. muscle to Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki’s plan for securing Baghdad. By assuming the responsibility for implementing the Maliki plan, e

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    of increasingly well-armed and organized militias and an outbreak of low-grade civil war, those estimates may be conservative.

    Furthermore, there is recent precedent for failure of a similar mini-surge. In August 2006, the U.S. and Iraqi transitional government “surged” police and military manpower into Baghdad in a bid to stem the rise in violence that had been occurring. That effort failed dramatically.

    Reliance on a Largely Sectarian Iraqi Government/Sunni Distrust:

    President Bush’s new strategy will provide U.S. muscle to Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki’s plan for securing Baghdad. By assuming the responsibility for implementing the Maliki plan, e

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    ise in violence that had been occurring. That effort failed dramatically.

    Reliance on a Largely Sectarian Iraqi Government/Sunni Distrust:

    President Bush’s new strategy will provide U.S. muscle to Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki’s plan for securing Baghdad. By assuming the responsibility for implementing the Maliki plan, especially if the Iraqi government fails to make a meaningful effort to disarm and dismantle the major Shia militias, the U.S. would risk playing a dangerously sectarian role. Following closely on the heels of the U.S. handover of Saddam Hussein to the Maliki government and that government's hanging him on the dawn of a major Sunni religious holiday, such a course could provide additional confirmation to already wary Sunnis that they cannot count on the United States to play an impartial role in Iraq’s transformation.

    A strategy that winds up mainly advancing Shia aspirations for dominance is not a recipe for building a stable Iraq. Maintaining or tightening existing Sunni economic and political disenfranchisement will likely push Iraq further down the violent path of fragmentation. President Bush mentioned in his national address that Prime Minister Maliki promised Iraqis that "The Baghdad security plan will not provide a safe haven for any outlaws, regardless of [their] sectarian or political affiliation." This is not the Maliki government’s first such pledge. To date, its record in carrying out such promises has proved poor. It has made no meaningful effort to disarm the Shia militias or to pursue national reconciliation. Relying on the two leading Shia militias for its political power, the Maliki government is at least as likely to retain

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