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    mply cannot be trusted to handle technical communications equipment … When making a call, the subscriber must give the number verbally to the operator who wi
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    Should we believe the experts in business?
    In 1876, Alexander Graham Bell offered his telephone patent to Western Union, the largest telegraph company in America, for $100,000. A committee of experts was convened to decide on the company’s interest in the new technology. The decision was clear.

    “Bell’s profession is that of a voice teacher … yet he claims to have discovered an instrument of great practical value in communication, which has been overlooked by thousands of workers who have spent years in this field. Any telegraph engineer will at once see the fallacy of this plan. The public simply cannot be trusted to handle technical communications equipment … When making a call, the subscriber must give the number verbally to the operator who wil

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    mpany in America, for $100,000. A committee of experts was convened to decide on the company’s interest in the new technology. The decision was clear.

    “Bell’s profession is that of a voice teacher … yet he claims to have discovered an instrument of great practical value in communication, which has been overlooked by thousands of workers who have spent years in this field. Any telegraph engineer will at once see the fallacy of this plan. The public simply cannot be trusted to handle technical communications equipment … When making a call, the subscriber must give the number verbally to the operator who wi

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    “Bell’s profession is that of a voice teacher … yet he claims to have discovered an instrument of great practical value in communication, which has been overlooked by thousands of workers who have spent years in this field. Any telegraph engineer will at once see the fallacy of this plan. The public simply cannot be trusted to handle technical communications equipment … When making a call, the subscriber must give the number verbally to the operator who wi

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    been overlooked by thousands of workers who have spent years in this field. Any telegraph engineer will at once see the fallacy of this plan. The public simply cannot be trusted to handle technical communications equipment … When making a call, the subscriber must give the number verbally to the operator who wi
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    mply cannot be trusted to handle technical communications equipment … When making a call, the subscriber must give the number verbally to the operator who will have to deal with the persons who may be illiterate, speak with lisps or stammer, or have foreign accents or who may be sleepy or intoxicated when making a call … In conclusion, the committee feels that it must advise against any investment whatever in Bell’s scheme.” (Martin 1977, p 11)

    What was the cause of the blindness exhibited by the Western Union committee? Another common cause of expert misjudgment is the “numeration bias.” Experts, like all humans, tend to assign a value to an idea by the number of people who support it. On the one hand, Western Union had all the “thousand of workers who spend

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