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Added for You - Forex Secrets - The True And False Breakouts Of The Resistance And Support Levels on Forex (Part I)
Credit cards are here for long times. Lots of people use them. However, still a doubt for credit cards exists in our minds. We see many people come up everyday with the credit cards frauds and losing their money. Here, whom should be blamed, the credit cards or the user. If we see deep inside this matter, then both are responsible for itCredit cards, as promoted are the alternative for hard cash. We don’t require carrying cash. We can pay our bills or use them for cash on emergency. Main advantage with credit cards is that unlike debit cards, they are not directly attached to our bank account. We require paying the money either completely or in partial installment after some time.If we pay back all the money used in some particular period, we are not charged any interest. Moreover banks provide lot of schemes like reward points and money back offer. All these things look very attractive. But the reality is not as good as it appear to be. Many people fall in this misinformation’s and found themselves in difficulties.Is this a fraud? If not then by these difficulties come. The main reason behind it is that rule and regulation related to cards are difficult and sometimes misleading. For example bank says that the bills paid in 50 days will be interest free. Bank counts its 50 days from its billing date and not from the date you have purchased the item.For say you have purchased item on 22nd of the month and your billing date is 25th of month. Then bank gives you 20 days from billing date to pay the balance and not from the date, you have purchased the item. Therefore you got only 23 days. But if you purchase goods on 26th, then your bill will be generated on 25th of next month and you are allowed 20 more days to pay the bill. Thus you got complete 50 days. Many people are not familiar with these formalities.Moreover bank says you to take your balance to next month by paying some minimum amount. This is known as revolving balance. It looks very attractive, but it has its drawbacks. First you don’t get interest free on purchases if you are in revolving balance. So people got in this trap and land up in huge balances.Recently Supreme Court of India has warned the banks to give the clear details an
Chart 2.3. The levels of resistance and support. (For view the picture see notes in end of article)
Thus, all rules that can guarantee the profitable practice at Forex can be briefly formulated as the following.
· One must understand (“feel”) the difference between the levels of support and resistance (see the previous part).
· One must know the rules of the true breakout through the levels and recoil from them, the false breakout included.
· One must watch the correlation between the flat and the trend in various timeframes (TF).
Comments. As one can see, the above-given rules that concern the flat-trend correlation are rather simple. Hence, there arises the following question. Why do more than 95% of traders, who know these rules, lose at Forex?
The answer is evident. That is, one must perfectly distinct the true
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1. To scrutinize the “classicists” of Forex approach to the problem of determining the difference between true and false technical level breakouts.
2. To expose drawbacks, inherent in each of the “classical systems”, which cause traders’ losses at Forex.
3. By giving analysis to these problems, to elaborate methods of their solution.
One can describe the today’s state of the technical level analysis at Forex as the following.
1. A unified method of detecting technical levels at Forex is not elaborated yet (see the Part “Levels of support and resistance” in Masterforex-V Trading System.
2. A technique that could permit us to estimate whether the breakout is true or false still is not developed as well.
One can mark out the two types of the currency pair movement at Forex :
a). There can happen the true (real) breakout through the technical level, after which a currency pair is moving towards the next level.
b). On the other hand, a recoil from the technical level, a false breakout included, is possible.
For the trader’s work, the following aspects are important.
1. There exists a flat – i.e., a lateral trend between the first levels of the resistance and support. When a currency gets into this price corridor, its further movement direction is uncertain.
2. By definition, the trend is the directed movement of currency pairs as the result of the true (real) breakout of the flat technical level.
a). If the currency pair movement is directed upwards, it is the breakout through the 1st level of resistance ( the breakout upwards).
b). If the currency pair movement is directed downwards, it is the breakout through the level of support (the breakout downwards).
It is clearly depicted in the charts given below.
Chart 2.1. The false breakout through the level of resistance and return to the flat zone. (For view the picture see notes in end of article)
Chart 2.2. The true breakout of the level of support and the beginning of the “bear” trend. (For view the picture see notes in end of article)
There are the rules that a trader must observe.
1. Under the conditions of the flat: a) Either to be out of the market (especially if the trend range is narrower than the average statistical stock reserve (cruising range) for a given currency pair per the trading session). b). Otherwise, one can work with the recoil – i.e., to make deals on “buy” from level of support and on “sell” from level of resistance under the condition of the flat broad ranges, approximately equal to the average statistical stock reserve (cruising range) for a given currency pair per the trading session.
2. Within the trend, I would recommend to work only towards its direction (“a trend is my friend”).
3. The true breakout through the technical level indicates the beginning of a trend. A). That is, if it is the breakout through the level of resistance, the “bull” trend is beginning. B). Otherwise, if it is the breakout through the level of support, the “bear” trend is developing.
4. The trend development (course) is the directed movement from one level of resistance/support to another. It is depicted in Chart 2.2. After breaking through the 1st level of support, the currency is rushing from one level to another – till the recoil. It means the non-breaking through any of the next levels or the false breakout through one of them. In Chart .2.2, the false breakout through the 3rd level of support (the flat) is depicted as well. It indicates that the given trend movement is temporally arrested or it has come to the end.
5. The trend wave attenuation (the end of it) is the trend directed movement turning into the lateral movement (flat). The flat is characterized by non-breaking through a level of resistance/support or the false breakout (the recoil). In Chart.2.2, one can see the false breakout through the level of support #3.
6. The market is under the conditions of the non-stop movement. Therefore, in a trading session, the trend end in the form of a flat makes the starting point of the trend further development. It is depicted in Chart 2.2 – between the levels of support ##2 and 3. As it is shown in Chart 2.3, the support #2 turns into the resistance #1.A local minimum turns into the support #1. Hence, the next trading session can be still carried out under the conditions of a flat, the levels of support/resistance being strictly determined. Otherwise, the ex-support #2, after breaking through the resistance #1, can open the “bull” trend. Respectively, if the support will be broken through, the “bear” trend will start.
Chart 2.3. The levels of resistance and support. (For view the picture see notes in end of article)
Thus, all rules that can guarantee the profitable practice at Forex can be briefly formulated as the following.
· One must understand (“feel”) the difference between the levels of support and resistance (see the previous part).
· One must know the rules of the true breakout through the levels and recoil from them, the false breakout included.
· One must watch the correlation between the flat and the trend in various timeframes (TF).
Comments. As one can see, the above-given rules that concern the flat-trend correlation are rather simple. Hence, there arises the following question. Why do more than 95% of traders, who know these rules, lose at Forex?
The answer is evident. That is, one must perfectly distinct the true
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For the trader’s work, the following aspects are important.
1. There exists a flat – i.e., a lateral trend between the first levels of the resistance and support. When a currency gets into this price corridor, its further movement direction is uncertain.
2. By definition, the trend is the directed movement of currency pairs as the result of the true (real) breakout of the flat technical level.
a). If the currency pair movement is directed upwards, it is the breakout through the 1st level of resistance ( the breakout upwards).
b). If the currency pair movement is directed downwards, it is the breakout through the level of support (the breakout downwards).
It is clearly depicted in the charts given below.
Chart 2.1. The false breakout through the level of resistance and return to the flat zone. (For view the picture see notes in end of article)
Chart 2.2. The true breakout of the level of support and the beginning of the “bear” trend. (For view the picture see notes in end of article)
There are the rules that a trader must observe.
1. Under the conditions of the flat: a) Either to be out of the market (especially if the trend range is narrower than the average statistical stock reserve (cruising range) for a given currency pair per the trading session). b). Otherwise, one can work with the recoil – i.e., to make deals on “buy” from level of support and on “sell” from level of resistance under the condition of the flat broad ranges, approximately equal to the average statistical stock reserve (cruising range) for a given currency pair per the trading session.
2. Within the trend, I would recommend to work only towards its direction (“a trend is my friend”).
3. The true breakout through the technical level indicates the beginning of a trend. A). That is, if it is the breakout through the level of resistance, the “bull” trend is beginning. B). Otherwise, if it is the breakout through the level of support, the “bear” trend is developing.
4. The trend development (course) is the directed movement from one level of resistance/support to another. It is depicted in Chart 2.2. After breaking through the 1st level of support, the currency is rushing from one level to another – till the recoil. It means the non-breaking through any of the next levels or the false breakout through one of them. In Chart .2.2, the false breakout through the 3rd level of support (the flat) is depicted as well. It indicates that the given trend movement is temporally arrested or it has come to the end.
5. The trend wave attenuation (the end of it) is the trend directed movement turning into the lateral movement (flat). The flat is characterized by non-breaking through a level of resistance/support or the false breakout (the recoil). In Chart.2.2, one can see the false breakout through the level of support #3.
6. The market is under the conditions of the non-stop movement. Therefore, in a trading session, the trend end in the form of a flat makes the starting point of the trend further development. It is depicted in Chart 2.2 – between the levels of support ##2 and 3. As it is shown in Chart 2.3, the support #2 turns into the resistance #1.A local minimum turns into the support #1. Hence, the next trading session can be still carried out under the conditions of a flat, the levels of support/resistance being strictly determined. Otherwise, the ex-support #2, after breaking through the resistance #1, can open the “bull” trend. Respectively, if the support will be broken through, the “bear” trend will start.
Chart 2.3. The levels of resistance and support. (For view the picture see notes in end of article)
Thus, all rules that can guarantee the profitable practice at Forex can be briefly formulated as the following.
· One must understand (“feel”) the difference between the levels of support and resistance (see the previous part).
· One must know the rules of the true breakout through the levels and recoil from them, the false breakout included.
· One must watch the correlation between the flat and the trend in various timeframes (TF).
Comments. As one can see, the above-given rules that concern the flat-trend correlation are rather simple. Hence, there arises the following question. Why do more than 95% of traders, who know these rules, lose at Forex?
The answer is evident. That is, one must perfectly distinct the true
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2. Within the trend, I would recommend to work only towards its direction (“a trend is my friend”).
3. The true breakout through the technical level indicates the beginning of a trend. A). That is, if it is the breakout through the level of resistance, the “bull” trend is beginning. B). Otherwise, if it is the breakout through the level of support, the “bear” trend is developing.
4. The trend development (course) is the directed movement from one level of resistance/support to another. It is depicted in Chart 2.2. After breaking through the 1st level of support, the currency is rushing from one level to another – till the recoil. It means the non-breaking through any of the next levels or the false breakout through one of them. In Chart .2.2, the false breakout through the 3rd level of support (the flat) is depicted as well. It indicates that the given trend movement is temporally arrested or it has come to the end.
5. The trend wave attenuation (the end of it) is the trend directed movement turning into the lateral movement (flat). The flat is characterized by non-breaking through a level of resistance/support or the false breakout (the recoil). In Chart.2.2, one can see the false breakout through the level of support #3.
6. The market is under the conditions of the non-stop movement. Therefore, in a trading session, the trend end in the form of a flat makes the starting point of the trend further development. It is depicted in Chart 2.2 – between the levels of support ##2 and 3. As it is shown in Chart 2.3, the support #2 turns into the resistance #1.A local minimum turns into the support #1. Hence, the next trading session can be still carried out under the conditions of a flat, the levels of support/resistance being strictly determined. Otherwise, the ex-support #2, after breaking through the resistance #1, can open the “bull” trend. Respectively, if the support will be broken through, the “bear” trend will start.
Chart 2.3. The levels of resistance and support. (For view the picture see notes in end of article)
Thus, all rules that can guarantee the profitable practice at Forex can be briefly formulated as the following.
· One must understand (“feel”) the difference between the levels of support and resistance (see the previous part).
· One must know the rules of the true breakout through the levels and recoil from them, the false breakout included.
· One must watch the correlation between the flat and the trend in various timeframes (TF).
Comments. As one can see, the above-given rules that concern the flat-trend correlation are rather simple. Hence, there arises the following question. Why do more than 95% of traders, who know these rules, lose at Forex?
The answer is evident. That is, one must perfectly distinct the true
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5. The trend wave attenuation (the end of it) is the trend directed movement turning into the lateral movement (flat). The flat is characterized by non-breaking through a level of resistance/support or the false breakout (the recoil). In Chart.2.2, one can see the false breakout through the level of support #3.
6. The market is under the conditions of the non-stop movement. Therefore, in a trading session, the trend end in the form of a flat makes the starting point of the trend further development. It is depicted in Chart 2.2 – between the levels of support ##2 and 3. As it is shown in Chart 2.3, the support #2 turns into the resistance #1.A local minimum turns into the support #1. Hence, the next trading session can be still carried out under the conditions of a flat, the levels of support/resistance being strictly determined. Otherwise, the ex-support #2, after breaking through the resistance #1, can open the “bull” trend. Respectively, if the support will be broken through, the “bear” trend will start.
Chart 2.3. The levels of resistance and support. (For view the picture see notes in end of article)
Thus, all rules that can guarantee the profitable practice at Forex can be briefly formulated as the following.
· One must understand (“feel”) the difference between the levels of support and resistance (see the previous part).
· One must know the rules of the true breakout through the levels and recoil from them, the false breakout included.
· One must watch the correlation between the flat and the trend in various timeframes (TF).
Comments. As one can see, the above-given rules that concern the flat-trend correlation are rather simple. Hence, there arises the following question. Why do more than 95% of traders, who know these rules, lose at Forex?
The answer is evident. That is, one must perfectly distinct the true
Let me save you, at least, several hundreds of dollars you would have spent on different business guides and tutorials, claiming to bring you online wealth.We both read many times sales and endorsement letters the only aim of which was to show us the ultimate way to Internet profits. We saw those screenshots of checks or financial statements, proving huge author's earnings, tens of supporting testimonials and risk-free guarantees.The distillation of these letters can be put into the following statement: "Order that ebook and I will show you how to make money online."Now the ultimate truth is that the process of selling this ebook, the process of doing what author does is the Real and True way of making money online! That is the only way to online prosperity, failing which, no screenshots of super check statements will ever appear.Examine what the author of any "internet business" guide is actually doing - that is the key to success. In many cases the results of your "examination" will be more important than what you may read in the offered ebook itself!The sweetest part is that everything, except for ebook content, is visible for your observation and research. Don't miss a chance of getting acquainted with real tools and facts of how this particular author makes money online every day, rather than reading what s/he wrote!Let me approach from other angle and offer you to imagine quite common example: there is a popular Internet author of 2-3 ebooks, who shows proofs of good profits to tempt you into reading his "ultimate success guide" and "feel involved". The truth is there is no rocket science and you shouldn't be a Solomon to understand simple fact - the actual way to success is to sell and promote these 2-3 ebooks as the author does!Keep in mind that I'm not speaking here about specialized materials, as you would hardly be able to observe all the knowledge explained by taking a close look at the author's online business.How to Uncover the TruthWrite down the subject author picked up for his product(s) and mark it as in-demand theme - otherwise this profitable author would not have chosen this theme after conducting a research and revealing certain selling potential.ons of a flat, the levels of support/resistance being strictly determined. Otherwise, the ex-support #2, after breaking through the resistance #1, can open the “bull” trend. Respectively, if the support will be broken through, the “bear” trend will start.
Chart 2.3. The levels of resistance and support. (For view the picture see notes in end of article)
Thus, all rules that can guarantee the profitable practice at Forex can be briefly formulated as the following.
· One must understand (“feel”) the difference between the levels of support and resistance (see the previous part).
· One must know the rules of the true breakout through the levels and recoil from them, the false breakout included.
· One must watch the correlation between the flat and the trend in various timeframes (TF).
Comments. As one can see, the above-given rules that concern the flat-trend correlation are rather simple. Hence, there arises the following question. Why do more than 95% of traders, who know these rules, lose at Forex?
The answer is evident. That is, one must perfectly distinct the true breakout through the technical level from a false one.
· When the technical level breakout is true, one must open a deal in the direction of the trend commenced.
· When the technical level breakout is false, one must open a deal towards the opposite direction.
It is so simple (evident), isn’t it? It is just necessary to clearly distinct (tell) the true breakout signs from the false ones.
We now examine how the difference between the true and false breakouts through the technical levels is explained by the “classicists” of Forex.
Generally speaking, the “classicists” state the following. The true breakout, in contrast to the false one, occurs when the trading volume is increasing. In the case of the false breakout, the trading volume does not increase.
In “Exchange trade basis”, Alexander Elder states the following. While opening a deal on “buy”, the best situation is when the breakout upwards in the day chart would be confirmed by the technical indices that could indicate the formation of a new upwards-trend beginning in the weekly chart. Larger trading volumes are inherent in the true breakouts. On the opposite, as a rule, false breakouts are characterized by small trading volumes. In addition, when the breakout is true, the technical indices reach new maximum/minimum values towards the direction of the trend development. The false breakout is often characterized by the divergence between prices and indices.
A certain price corridor is more inherent in the market than a trend. The majority of breakouts through the price corridor bounds are false. Such breakouts can involve into the game a gambler who follows the trend– earlier than the prices return to the standard. The false breakout is the amateur’s plague. At the same time, professionals adore such false breakouts.
Neiman’s viewpoint is the following. In their majority, false signals can be checked (detected) with the help of the volume indices. In the first (primal) currency movement towards the level of support/resistance, the trading volumes are increasing. At the last stage in currency movement towards the level of support/resistance, such volumes are diminishing. That is, at the beginning of this reversal figure development, the volume is increasing due to the trend previous price movement. When the figure development is coming to the end, the volume is increasing due to the price movement in the direction, opposite to the previous trend. It is the sign that nobody is interested in prolonging the old trend. In a chart, it can be depicted as follows:
Chart 2.4. (For view the picture see notes in end of article)
L. Borcelino in his “Manual of de-trading” presents another characteristic of the double peak/minimum. The second peak/minimum is formed with a trading volume smaller than the first one. In fact, the second peak/minimum cannot be as high/deep as the first one. Nevertheless, it is the repeated attempt at moving towards the same direction. And what is more, such double peaks/minimums can develop their 3rd , 4th, etc. waves (versions). Such double/triple peaks/minimums can be formed within a short period - as well as during a much longer time interval – from several minutes and up to ten years.
In contrast to the false breakout, the true one is characterized by the trading day closing above the technical level breakout. This position must be hold up not less than during 2 days.
J. Murphy in his “Technical analysis of future markets” also investigated the problem of criteria of the true breakout through the trend line. It is not a simple problem. In detecting such criteria, subjectivity of a kind is unavoidable. As a rule, the trend line breakout via the price of closing of bargain (deal) is more important than just a breakout within a day.
* There are price filters. They condition (prescribe) that the trend line must be broken through by a certain value. In addition, there exist time filters. Among them, the most commonly used is the so-called the rule of two days.
In contrast to the false breakout, the true one is characterized by the trading day closing behind (above) the technical level broken through. This position must be hold up not less than during 5 days.
In his “Technical analysis. The full course”, D. Swagger studied the problem of signs of a true/false breakout. According to him, the following situation is rather common (ordinary). Prices just slightly deviate from
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